New research suggests artificial intelligence could become a powerful tool in resolving international conflicts, though experts warn of significant limitations in diplomatic applications.
The Institute for Integrated Transitions (IFIT), a Spain-based non-governmental organization, published findings on May 12, 2025, examining AI's potential role in diplomatic conflict resolution. According to IFIT Executive Director Mark Freeman, traditional diplomacy's approach of lengthy, comprehensive peace negotiations often proves ineffective when analyzed against historical outcomes.
"There's often a very short amount of time within which you can usefully bring the instrument of negotiation or mediation to bear on the situation," Freeman explains. His research indicates that faster "framework agreements" and limited ceasefires—with details worked out later—frequently produce more successful and longer-lasting peace settlements than comprehensive negotiations.
Freeman believes AI systems can enhance this approach by analyzing past conflicts to identify optimal negotiation strategies. "AI can make fast-track negotiation even faster," he notes. IFIT has developed a fast-track approach aimed at securing agreements early in conflicts, which they believe AI tools could significantly accelerate.
However, Stefan Heumann, co-director of the Berlin-based Stiftung Neue Verantwortung think tank and member of the German parliament's Expert Commission on Artificial Intelligence, cautions about AI's limitations in diplomatic contexts. "Human connections—personal relationships between leaders—can change the course of negotiations," Heumann says. "AI can't replicate that."
Heumann points to historical examples like the 1938 Munich Agreement, which appeared to reduce tensions but ultimately led to catastrophe. "Appeasement at Munich in 1938 was viewed as a de-escalatory step—yet it led to catastrophe," he explains. "Labels like 'escalate' and 'de-escalate' are far too simplistic" for AI to properly evaluate. He also notes that while AI thrives in open information environments, it "won't magically solve our intelligence problems on closed societies like North Korea or Russia."
Despite these challenges, researchers at various institutions continue exploring AI applications in diplomacy, including crafting peace agreements, preventing nuclear escalation, and monitoring ceasefire compliance. As AI systems evolve, their role in international relations will likely grow, requiring careful consideration of both their capabilities and limitations.