The Pentagon is betting on artificial intelligence to revolutionize American diplomacy, marking a significant shift in how the US approaches international relations.
At the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, DC, researchers at the Futures Lab are exploring how AI can transform diplomatic practices. With funding from the Pentagon's Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office (CDAO), the lab is experimenting with AI systems like ChatGPT and DeepSeek to explore their applications in matters of war and peace.
The research focuses on testing AI's potential for crafting peace agreements, preventing nuclear escalation, and monitoring ceasefire compliance. One notable project, "Strategic Headwinds," aims to help shape negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. To build this tool, researchers trained an AI model on hundreds of peace treaties and open-source news articles detailing each side's negotiating stance. The model then identifies potential areas of agreement that could lead toward a ceasefire.
Initial testing has revealed interesting patterns in how different AI models approach conflict resolution. Models such as OpenAI's GPT-4o and Antropic's Claude demonstrated "distinctly pacifist" tendencies, opting for force in fewer than 17% of scenarios. However, other models—including Meta's Llama, Alibaba Cloud's Qwen2, and Google's Gemini—were far more aggressive, favoring escalation up to 45% of the time.
The research also found that AI outputs varied according to the country in question. For diplomats from the US, UK, or France, these systems tended to recommend more aggressive policies, while suggesting de-escalation for Russia or China. As CSIS fellow Yasir Atalan notes, "You cannot just use off-the-shelf models. You need to assess their patterns and align them with your institutional approach."
Beyond the CSIS initiative, both the Defense and State departments are developing their own AI systems for diplomatic applications. The US isn't alone in this approach—the UK is also working on "novel technologies" to overhaul diplomatic practices, including using AI to plan negotiation scenarios.
While challenges remain—including AI's struggle with nuanced diplomatic language and long-term strategic thinking—the Pentagon's investment signals a growing recognition that artificial intelligence will play an increasingly central role in shaping America's approach to global affairs.